Macro and Fundamental Factors Were Mixed, Aluminum Price Maintained Fluctuating Trend [SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing]

SMM September 8:

Futures side, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 20,750 yuan/mt in the previous trading day's night session, with the highest price at 20,790 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,655 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,665 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt or 0.14% WoW. Trading volume was 55,600 lots, and open interest was 197,000 lots. In the previous trading day, LME opened at $2,592/mt, with the highest price at $2,624/mt, the lowest price at $2,590/mt, and closed at $2,602.5/mt.

Currently, the macro front of the aluminum market shows a multi-dimensional favorable resonance pattern, providing strong support for aluminum prices. From overseas policies, Mexican President Sheinbaum stated that she is considering imposing additional tariffs on countries that do not have trade agreements with Mexico, including China. Trump signed an executive order allowing the US to dynamically adjust tariffs (such as zeroing tariffs on some goods) after reaching framework or final agreements with foreign trading partners, but maintaining existing steel and aluminum derivative tariffs before agreements are signed. Domestically, the 2025 interim report season concluded. Although the overall performance of real estate companies was not ideal, market confidence has somewhat recovered. The vast majority of real estate companies believe that the real estate market has basically hit bottom, but the rebound is weak; the industry's core theme has completely shifted from "scale expansion" to "survival quality" and "exploration of new models." Fundamentals side, according to SMM statistics, on September 8, inventory of aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 631,000 mt, up 8,000 mt from Monday and up 5,000 mt from last Thursday. Overall, the macro front maintains a favorable atmosphere; fundamentals side, downstream demand is marginally improving, the proportion of liquid aluminum is increasing, casting ingot volume is decreasing, but the turning point for aluminum ingot inventory has not yet arrived, actual demand has not significantly improved, downstream enterprises have limited upward cost space, aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure at 20,900-21,000 yuan/mt, but interest rate cut expectations coupled with peak season expectations still exist, aluminum prices are expected to have some support below, subsequent aluminum prices still need to wait for the realization of the peak consumption season.

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